Trump secured victory in 2016 by winning in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Arizona.
Bogota, October 20, 2020 (Portfolio) – November 3 presidential election in the United States is reduced to a handful of key states that will decide the race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican President Donald Trump.
Trump secured victory in 2016 by winning in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Arizona.But now he appears lagging behind in the intention of voting in those six states.Biden also outperforms Trump, albeit by narrow margins, in three other states the tycoon won in 2016: Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio, based on an average of state surveys of the RealClearPolitics platform (CPR).
Here's a look at the race in these nine key states:
A:Biden's home state is the most electoral-heavy in the Rust Belt, a north-central region of the country marked by industrial decline over the past decade. Trump supporters abound there, mostly campaigning door-to-door outside big cities. In the Democratic field, former President Barack Obama will make his first appearance on the election campaign next week at an event in Philadelphia to support his former vice president. Pennsylvania has multiple socioeconomic regions and Biden has invested significant advertising resources in the state.
Pennsylvania's big cities will surely vote for Biden, while the rural west and conservative center are expected to support Trump. For both of us, winning in the suburbs of cities and in the northeast of the state is critical.Average CPR: Biden wins by 5.6 percentage points. MICH
igan leaned for very little in Trump's favor in 2016 and this year is fiercely contested. Trump has visited the Great Lakes state promising a great economy, but voters are concerned about the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the president's response.
Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer has clashed several times with Trump and his forced closures to prevent contagion have infuriated conservatives. Armed protesters protested in front of the state capitol as of the year and members of a right-wing group were recently arrested for planning a plot to kidnap the governor.CPR: Biden wins by 7.2 percentage points.
N: Democrat Hillary Clinton chose not to campaign on America's dairy lands in 2016, and voters punished her. This year, Democrats targeted Wisconsin, choosing it as the venue for their national convention, although the covid-19 forced the event to be held in virtual format. Trump and Biden have campaigned in the state and Vice President Mike Pence and Biden's co-worker Kamala Harris have visited him as well.PCR: Biden wins by 6.3 percentage points.
: The largest of the pendular voting states is an important member of the Sun Belt, the strip that runs from the southeastern Atlantic coast to the pacific coast of the southwest. Republicans defend Florida cloak and sword, rapidly growing population, thriving agricultural industry and home to a large number of retirees. But Democrats accuse them of actively suppressing the vote, particularly in black communities.
The state's huge Latino population will be key, and polls show they support Democrats less than they do in 2016. At the same time, older people move away from Trump because of his pandemic management. Most experts say Florida is defining for Trump: if he loses there, he'll probably lose the White House.CPR: Biden wins by 1.4 percentage points.
This traditionally conservative state chose Trump four years ago, but now the result is uncertain. The governor of North Carolina is a Democrat who has earned praise for his response to the pandemic. Republicans chose the state as the venue for their national convention, although the event ended up being largely by videoconference.PCR: Biden wins by 2.7 percentage points.
AArizona has been a Republican stronget for decades, but its electorate is changing, with a growing Latino community and an influx of progressive Californians. Conservative voters appreciate Trump's efforts to restrict immigration and build a wall on the Mexican border. But Trump has damaged his chances by repeatedly denigrating the late Senator John McCain, who represented Arizona in Washington and still occupies a leading role in state politics. McCain's widow, Cindy McCain, backs Biden.CPR: Biden wins by 4.0 percentage points.
ATrump easily won in Iowa four years ago, beating Clinton by nearly 10 points, but the race seems to be at odds this time in this Midwest farming state. This week, Trump held a campaign rally in Iowa in a sign that he is playing defensively in a state he hoped to win for sure.PCR: Biden wins by 1.2 percentage points
IAN as a Democrat has won a presidential contest in Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992, but the once Republican strongman has shown a Democratic trend in recent years. Trump made a rally in Georgia on Friday, an indication that he may be on unstable ground there.PCR: Biden wins by 1.2 percentage points.
OOhio, with its 18 votes at the Electoral College to be decided by the president, is one of the main trophies of election day. Trump defeated Clinton in Ohio by 8.1 points, but polls show a race played this time in this midwest industrial state. Biden was there promising to help save the American auto industry when he was vice president.PCR: Biden wins by 0.6 percentage points.
Published in Portfolio, available here